
The Net Zero Energy System Transition (NZEST) model to assess large infrastructure investments for transformative change
February 7, 2025
Over the past 25 years, climate change policy in Canada has been largely driven by econometric models where the focus is on the ‘free market’ making incremental changes in energy systems in response to technology and policy levers. This approach has not been successful in meeting Canada’s Kyoto (2012) and Copenhagen (2020) commitments, but we now face a much more challenging target of net-zero emissions by mid-century (Paris, 2050).
Net-zero requires transformative changes in energy systems and the critical policy and investment decisions must be informed by new modeling tools. To address this challenge, we have built the Net Zero Energy System Transition (NZEST) model which is based on principles of engineering rather than econometrics, and takes into consideration the importance of large infrastructure investments to ‘get to scale’ and enable transformative changes.
My presentation today reports on the use of NZEST in a net-zero scenario where large scale electrification and a major shift to biofuels is supplemented by the decarbonization of oil and gas to produce hydrogen and ammonia that can serve both domestic and export energy needs. Other scenarios will be discussed.
THE TRANSITION ACCELERATOR is a pan-Canadian organisation that works with others to identify and advance viable pathways to a prosperous, competitive, and net-zero Canada in 2050.
DAVID LAYZELL is an Emeritus Professor from the University of Calgary and an Energy Systems Architect for the Transition Accelerator, a non-profit focused on the net-zero energy system transition in Canada. His research uses techno-economic and environmental modelling tools to identify credible, compelling, and capable pathways for transitioning Canada’s energy systems to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century. His particular interest is how the zero-emission energy carriers, including electricity, hydrogen and biofuels - produced with very low or zero GHGs - can work together to provide society with its energy needs.
Before assisting in the launch of the Transition Accelerator in 2019, David established the Canadian Energy System Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative at the U of C in 2013 and was Executive Director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy (ISEEE) at the U of C (2008-12). As a Professor at Queen’s University (Kingston, ON), he set up and ran the BIOCAP Canada Foundation (1998-2008), founded a scientific instrumentation company called Qubit Systems Inc. and was elected ‘Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada’ (FRSC) for his research contributions.
Where: Online
FREE Event!
The meeting will be streamed on Zoom. For connecting via zoom follow this link:
https://queensu.zoom.us/j/96173091680?pwd=yVQrfncMtny1EZCmJEl6CuZVVGGVGk.1
Meeting ID: 961 7309 1680
Passcode: 535158
One tap mobile
+16473744685,,96892053564#,,,,*120373# Canada
+16475580588,,96892053564#,,,,*120373# Canada